Target Twenty-One

For once this season everyone thought we were going to win and we did, which when you think about it was a rather strange turn of events for a team that had only won once in their last 21 fizzy games. Of course, the fact that we were facing a team with only one win in 13 and with that win over six weeks ago may have something to do with it but it does, I suppose, speak volumes for the belief that we still have that we can save ourselves and as far as the team are concerned it's a winning attitude that we just have to maintain if we are to get out of this mess.

It goes without saying then that we need another win next weekend at relegation rivals Barnsley but while the main table still looks daunting with seven points to safety, at least the current-form-table looks much more encouraging. Over the last 8 games we now 17th with 7 points out of the last 24 available. Nothing to write home about perhaps but nevertheless there's no less than five of the bottom seven teams ( the only exception is Forest) with less points to show for their efforts over recent games and that all appear to be in a worse shape than we are going into the last 14 games.

I had thought that 45 was a reasonable target to aim for but even that may prove to be too low. And a look back at how the table finished last season was a bit of a shock with Coventry finishing in 21st place with 53 points! But searching back further at previous years its looks as if last year was a bit of a freak with it being the highest total in the last 10 years. Going backwards the totals of 53, 43, 43, 51, 52, 47, 50, 49, 47 and 48 would have been enough to secure 21st place. So anything between 43 and 53 to aim for, with a average of 48 points.

So to see just how many we really need, I worked out what the others had got over the last 14 games and added it to their current total to see if we could get a total to aim for.

Notts Forest (P32 - Pts 34; 9 pt gap) - 13 points from last 8(1.625 per game), 22 points from last 14 at 1.5 per game. So 1.5 x 14 = 21 + 34 = 55 total

Barnsley (P30 - Pts 32; 7 pt gap) also on 7 from last 8 (0.875 per game), 14 points from last 14 so at 1 point per game. So 1 x 16 = 16 + 32 = 48 total

Watford ( P30 - Pts 30; 5 pt gap) 7 from last 8 (0.875 per game), 15 points from last 14 so at 1 point per game. So 1 x 16 = 16 + 30 = 46 total

Norwich (P33 - Pts 32; 7 pt gap) 6 from last 8 at 0.75 per game, 12 points from last 14 so at 0.85 per game. So 0.85 x 13 = 11 + 32 = 43 total

Plymouth (P32 - Pts 35; 10 pt gap) - 5 points from their last 8 games (0.625 per game), 7 from last 14 games at 0.5 per game. So 0.5 per game x 14= 7 points + 35 = 42 points total.

Southampton (P32 - Pts 28; 3 pt gap) - 5 from last 8 (0.75 per game), 9 points from last 14 at 0.64 per game. So 0.64 x 14 = 9 + 28 = 37 total

OK, so what about the Addicks ? - 7 points from last 8 games (0.875 per game), BUT only 9 points from last 14 at 0.64 per game. So 0.64 x 14 = 9 + 25 = 34 total.

So, judged over the performance of the teams over the last 14 games we'd still finish bottom at three points adrift; but who's improving? What's the prediction looking at their point scoring rate over the last 8 games? So here's how all of the Relegation Haunted Teams would fare based on their current form.

Forest - 1.625 per game x 14 = 22 + 34 = 56 points total
Barnsley - 0.875 per game x 16 = 14 + 32 = 46 points total
Watford - 0.875 per game x 16 = 14 + 30 = 44 points total
Plymouth - 0.625 per game x 14 = 8 + 35 = 43 points total
Norwich - 0.75 per game x 13 = 9 + 32 = 41 points total
Southampton - 0.75 per game x 14 = 10 + 28 = 38 points total
Addicks - 0.875 per game x 14 = 12 + 25 = 37 points total

Now only a one point deficit but a result that shows just how desperate the situation actually is - there are simply not enough games to guarantee an escape.
And the only promising way to look at things is to see who has improved over the last 8 games the most and clearly we are head and shoulders above the rest.

Forest - Aver. 1.5 pts per game over last 14 - currently up to 1.625 per game

Barnsley - Average 1 per game over last 14 - currently decreased to 0.875

Watford - Average 1 per game over last 14 - currently decreased to 0.875

Plymouth - Average 0.5 per game over last 14 - currently increased to 0.625

Norwich - Average 0.85 per game over last 14 - currently decreased to 0.75

Southampton - Average 0.64 per game over last 14 - currently increased to 0.75

Addicks - Average 0.64 per game over last 14 - currently increased to 0.875

So four teams improving and three going the other way and we are therefore left with the conclusion that we just need to keep improving. Target 21 was an effort to see what we needed to reach the comparative safety of 21st position. A similar number of 21 additional points would give us a total of 46 points. Would even that massive total from our remaining 14 games prove to be enough?